Some schools will be 'tipped over the edge' by pupil losses as a result of VAT on fees, warns ISC CEO

Ms Robinson said: "Every school is going to have to make a decision on their fees, based on their own set of circumstances. How much most schools will pass on is hard to say at this point, but what we do know is that majority of our schools have no choice but to pass on something, and it's only going to be made worse with a rushed January implementation. Most schools are actually really small and they have tight margins. 

"The majority of independent schools and their families are going to be hit badly by this tax; small schools, special schools, faith schools and specialist art schools. There's a real danger that the loss of a relatively small number of pupils will tip some schools over the edge.

"There's a variety of reports out there with a wide range of estimates on how much this policy will actually raise and what the effects will be. None of them support the original estimate and the IFS report does, in fact, admit the evidence is thin and long-term impacts are uncertain.

"What the reports all highlight is the policy is a gamble, because the amount of revenue it will raise, if any, is very uncertain. And a January implementation only risks further the long-term revenue this policy could raise. It's going to cause real damage. 

"The effect of this policy will be to displace children from independent schools because they won't be able to afford the education tax. Those children may have special needs, particular needs. 

"It's really hard to predict what the pattern will be across the country, and we don't know whether those places are available right now, particularly given this January implementation for those children. There's going to be enormous disruption for tens of thousands of children."