ISC CEO: 'I fear VAT on fees could cause damage to the state system'

Ms Robinson said: "It's causing huge anxiety as you can imagine. The fact that the implementation of this policy has come forward to January means that it causes a change mid-year, so schools that had already set their budgets, before even the general election happened, are having to look really carefully at how they can manage across this next year. And they're under huge pressure from parents, who are really, really, worried about the future and finding the right provision for their children.

"The majority of schools are small; they don't have big financial backing so they work to really tight margins and it's very hard for them, without, say, causing redundancies, to be able to accommodate too much. Some schools are still waiting for detail from the Treasury before they're able to even set their fees for next term.

"We saw earlier this year a slight dip in registration of new pupils and we're having that reported again for the beginning of this term, there's another dip at entrance points for schools. And we're expecting that to happen, unfortunately, across next year, so over the coming years children not coming in and working through the system will lead to a significant fall in pupil numbers.

"It is going to mean school closures. It's hard to predict exactly where because we cannot know for certain where the children will be displaced - which areas, which year groups - and this is particularly a concern for parents who have a specific type of school in mind. So, small faith schools - Muslim schools and Jewish schools, there are lots of those across London - and specialist schools, if they lose a certain proportion of their pupils, then their school is under threat and that means a whole school's worth of pupils looking for provision locally.

"The sector has increased fee assistance for parents over recent years, and it's over £1 billion at this point. There are some schools doing amazing things, like Latymer Upper, which has one in four new pupils on bursaries. Schools are really committed to that, they also want to ensure that current parents can keep their child through to the end of their phase of education as far as they can - so they're having to consider that along with all their other costs.

"We all want children to be in great schools and everyone wants the state system to be well-funded - so I absolutely agree we want to see more funding in state schools. But the way to do that is not through taking it from independent schools. Education across the world is not taxed, and the reports on this policy suggest that it's questionable whether the policy will raise anything at all over time. The children who are displaced into the state sector reduce the tax take for the independent school and it then creates a cost - at the moment, independent schools across the country save the taxpayer £4.5 billion by educating 600,000 children not at a cost to the state.

"I also fear that it could cause damage to the state system; we know that special educational needs education across the country is under severe strain, over 110,000 children at independent schools across the country have additional needs support and if those start moving into the state system it could cause even more strain on an already stretched system. If they have a specific type of Education, Health and Care Plan (EHCP) they will get a refund - that would account for 7,000 of those 111,000 children with special educational needs, and sadly VAT is set to be levied even on special educational need therapy."